A second wave of Covid-19 infections is expected to slow India’s economic recovery in the three months between April to June, according to Goldman Sachs, APA reports citing CNBC.
The investment bank on Tuesday lowered India’s growth forecast for the quarter from 33.4% year-on-year previously, to 31.3%. It cited lower consumption and services activity likely due to increased social restrictions that are being put in place by India’s state and federal governments to tackle the new outbreak.
Goldman said it expects gross domestic product (GDP) to contract sequentially by 12.2% quarter-on-quarter on an annualized basis for the three months ending June — which marks the first quarter of India’s fiscal year that began on April 1 and ends on March 31, 2022. Last year, India slipped into a technical recession after registering two consecutive quarters of contraction.
“With virus cases surging to a new high of over 100K/day over the weekend, and a host of states including Maharashtra announcing stricter lockdown restrictions which are likely to broaden out in coming weeks, we expect Q2 GDP growth to be slower than we had initially anticipated,” Goldman analysts wrote.