Although all market outlooks are subject to many risks, the April edition of EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving, APA reports citing EIA.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in energy fuel supply and demand patterns. Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increase in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries. Similar uncertainties persist across EIA’s outlook for other energy sources, including natural gas and electricity.
Despite recent news of OPEC+ emergency meetings within the next few days to discuss production levels, without an agreement actually in place, EIA assumes no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement during the forecast period. If there is ultimately an agreement, this forecast will incorporate that information into its ensuing release.