U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its forecast for global oil production for 2024, APA-Economics reports citing EIA.
"Based on the S&P Global macroeconomic model, we expect U.S. real GDP to grow by 0.5% in 2023, with economic growth returning after contraction in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23) and 2Q23. In 2024, real GDP grows by 1.9%, driven primarily by an increase in household consumption. Relatively flat economic growth in 2023 results in total U.S. energy consumption falling by 0.9% in our forecast. Total energy consumption then rises by 1.0% in 2024.
Global production of liquid fuels in our forecast reaches an average of 102.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, up from 100.0 million b/d in 2022, driven by large growth in non-OPEC production. However, uncertainty over Russia’s oil supply will persist, particularly in early 2023. We expect that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase from an average of 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 102.2 million b/d in 2024. Ongoing concerns about global economic conditions as well as the easing COVID-19 restrictions in China, however, increase the uncertainty of the outcomes of our demand forecasts. With more global oil production than consumption in our forecast, we expect global oil inventories will increase over the next two years.
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages slightly less than $5.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023 in our forecast—down close to 25% from last year—as domestic consumption declines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remain relatively flat. In 2024, we expect natural gas prices to again average slightly below $5.00/MMBtu, as dry natural gas production outpaces an increase in LNG exports that results from rising LNG export capacity," says EIA.
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