S&P Global Ratings forecasts Azerbaijan's commercial debt for end of 2021 will be USD 9.5 bln., APA-Economics reports citing the Agency.
According to result of 2020, this indicator was USD 9 bln. Thus, according to expectations, country's commercial debt will increase by 5.6%.
S&P notes that Azerbaijan's commercial debt made up 63.2% of total debt of the country in 2020. 97.7% of the state debt has been long-term fixed-rate debt, 2.3% short-term debt. 57.9% of total debt of the country is foreign currency. Furthermore, 36.9% of the total debt falls to share of the multilateral debt.
According to investigation of the Agency, the highest state debt (USD 292,1 bln. or 85.6% of total debt) belonged to Egypt among developing countries for end of 2020. This indicator of the country is expected to reach USD 314 bln. in 2021. Russia, which ranked in second place for the mentioned indicator, has USD 228,5 bln. commercial debt (99.6% of total debt) for the end of 2020. According to forecasts of S&P, this indicator is supposed to increase up to USD 270,4 bln. until the end of 2021.
Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with tenors of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans.
In addition to commercial debt, some of the estimates we use in this study also report on bilateral and multilateral official debt. We do not include government debt that may be issued by some central banks for monetary policy purposes.