International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth at 3.6% in 2022, while 2% in 2023, APA-Economics reports citing the Fitch Ratings.
Fitch forecasts inflation averages 11.7% in 2022, with an additional 250bp of policy interest rate rises by year-end.
"Food prices, which rose 16.8% yoy in March, will be further impacted by lower imports from Ukraine and Russia, particularly of wheat. Fitch forecasts inflation averages 11.7% in 2022, with an additional 250bp of policy interest rate rises by year-end. Easing global commodity prices, fading supply chain disruptions, and the lagged effect of real effective exchange rate appreciation will help bring inflation down to a projected average of 7.2% in 2023, but still above the 'BB' median of 3.8%."
Fitch forecasts the surplus rises to 10.9% of GDP in 2022 on the back of further strong revenue growth, moderating to 5.2% in 2023 in line with lower energy prices. We assume near full execution of planned expenditure on the territories reclaimed in the conflict with Armenia, averaging 2.1% of GDP in 2022-2023."
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