UK economy to lose 3.5 percent of GDP in no-deal Brexit, IMF warns
Britain will suffer economic damage equivalent to the loss of at least 2-3 years of normal growth between now and the end of 2021 if it leaves the European Union without an exit deal, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, ONAreports citing Reuters.
The IMF said that even in a relatively orderly no-deal Brexit scenario — with no delays at borders and minimal financial market turmoil — the economy would grow 3.5 percent less by the end of 2021 than it would under a smoother Brexit.
“The increase in trade barriers has an immediate negative impact on UK foreign and domestic demand,” the IMF said.
The EU economy would suffer too but by much less than Britain, facing an estimated 0.5 percent hit to gross domestic product compared with a smooth Brexit scenario, the IMF said.
British exports to the EU and other countries which have trade deals with the bloc would face new tariffs and regulatory barriers if Britain reverted to the World Trade Organisation rules favoured by some Brexit supporters.
In its report on Tuesday, the fund said a worse-case no-deal Brexit scenario involving border delays and financial market turmoil would increase the damage to about 4 percent of GDP by 2021.
The forecasts took into account the British government’s plans not to impose tariffs on most categories of imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, and also assumed that the Bank of England would cut interest rates.
The IMF downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Britain this year to 1.2 percent from a forecast of 1.5 percent it made three months ago, which would be the weakest since 2009.
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