Russian expert: Statement by Armenian FM on "unwillingness to make any territorial concessions" came as a surprise to Russia
- 22 April 2020
"Russia forces Armenia to hurry regarding the settlement of Nagorno Garabagh conflict”, said Sergey Markov, the renowned political scientist, director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies in his interview with APA’s Moscow correspondent.
The Russian political expert commenting the “Armenia doesn’t intend to effect any territorial compromise” statement of the head of Armenia’s MFA Zohrab Mnatsakanyan in response to the statement of Russia’s minister of foreign affairs Sergey Lavrov regarding the plan for the phased solution of Nagorno Garabagh conflict said this statement was unexpected for Russia: "This settlement model was prepared more than 10 years ago. This is the Kazan formula which envisages returning back by Armenia to Azerbaijan of the seven regions surrounding Nagorno Garabagh. And in exchange for this, Azerbaijan will fully eliminate the economic blockade of Armenia and Nagorno Garabagh region. At the same time, the platform for negotiations will be formed regarding the status of Garabagh. Along with this, the security guarantee will be given to Garabagh. This security guarantee will be in the form consisting of two corridors between Armenia and Nagorno Garabagh. Also, the territories adjacent to the contact line between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Garabagh will be demilitarized. All these provisions have been reflected in the model of the settlement of the Nagorno Garabagh conflict.
We now see how the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, wants to go to this settlement, as Serzh Sargsyan wanted to do before. However, Pashinyan is afraid to agree to this model settlement. He is afraid of radicals in Armenia. He is afraid that he will be overthrown. Therefore, he wants to put all the responsibility, first of all, on the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh, especially the newly "elected" leadership.
Russia has been sympathetic to Pashinyan's request so far. Moscow was waiting for the "elections" to finally take place in Karabakh, Pashinyan's people in Karabakh to take a step forward. Therefore, the statement of the Armenian Foreign Minister "we do not intend to make any territorial concessions" was unexpected for Russia."
S. Markov stressed that the purpose of the statement of the head of Armenian MFA is other: “ They want the statement regarding compromise to be voiced not by the side of Yerevan but Nagorno Garabagh. I think that sooner or later such a statement will be voiced by Nagorno Garabagh and this quasi will be the initiative of the Armenian community of Nagorno Garabagh.
I consider that the known statement of the head of Armenian MFA is not the final decision of the Armenian side. Moscow will be able to bring Yerevan to the negotiation table in order to sign the document developed based on the Kazan formula.
But there is an interesting nuance. Pashinyan suspects Moscow that the Kremlin is urging him to make this concession so that Pashinyan's rivals from the Karabakh clan, the Republican Party, to overthrow him. Pashinyan believes that the Karabakh clan and the Republican Party are close to Moscow. Moscow does not like Pashinyan himself. I think part of this idea is true. Moscow does not trust Pashinyan. He also does not trust because he does not keep his word."