Why Armenia, in a difficult situation, is resorting to provocation? - ANALYSIS
On July 12, Armenian armed forces fired Aghdam village of Tovuz district by using 120 mm mortars. More serious response measures have been taken by our troops against the provocation of the enemy. Armenia’s provocation has failed.
Azerbaijan surpasses Armenia in terms of economic performance, the strength of its armed forces, and diplomatic success. In such a condition, committing a provocation by Armenia on the frontline poses interest. Official Yerevan understands that in no way a new battle will meet its interests. If a war starts, Armenia’s heavy defeat is an axiom. So, everyone is thinking about such a question now: What made Yerevan commit a provocation, which puts itself in a very difficult situation? It is a clear issue that the main purpose was the occupation of positions of Azerbaijani Army, as well as damage to live forces and military equipment. However, the enemy was driven back as a result of counter-measures, conducted by the Azerbaijani Army, its live force and military equipment have seriously been damaged. Note that countermeasures of the Azerbaijani Army have been adequate by nature. It means Armenia attempted a provocation and the Azerbaijani side responded to Armenia’s provocations determinedly. Armenian political leadership understands that they can not stand with a new war.
Yerevan’s weakness in comparison with Baku on all platforms is obvious. At this point, it also becomes necessary to pay attention to another issue. During the period of the coronavirus pandemic, Armenia’s provocation of starting a new war in fact exerts a negative influence on the whole global order. It is well known that since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, a number of military conflicts have been suspended worldwide. At such times, Armenia’s war provocation will be perceived as a quite bad example. The war during the period of a pandemic may also be evaluated as an attempt to make the world to succumb to coronavirus. Besides, this step has once again proved that Armenia’s stance as if to provide support to the UN Secretary General’s call to stop conflicts due to pandemic is groundless. In such a situation, the world community should take up the stance of sharp reproach in regard to Armenia because Armenia along with turning a deaf ear to the UN Secretary General’s call, doesn’t give up such an aggressive intention during the period of a hard pandemic by trampling all principles of humanism.
Armenia was already in a difficult economic and political situations, it aggravated its diplomatic situation by demonstrating that it will start a war during the pandemic period. It was possible to forecast all of these in advance. In this case what made Armenia make war provocation? The point is that the next provocation of Armenian units on the border with Azerbaijan has aimed at the Armenian government to distract the attention of the population from internal problems. Thus, currently, a deep crisis is being experienced in Armenia due to the loss of confidence of the population in the government. Serious social-economic problems, corruption, countless difficulties in the field of fight against coronavirus, suppression of human rights and freedoms, applying repressions against political opponents, free speech in Armenia has put Pashinyan’s government in a very difficult situation. Currently, the situation in Armenia is very difficult, the process of unification of opposition under a single front against the government is underway. It is unlikely that Pashinyan’s attempts to eliminate problems with such provocations will give any result. Pashinyan has faced the pressures of the opposition within the country, while outside the country strict demands of Moscow. Against the background of the constantly deteriorating Armenia-Russia relations, the Prime minister does not know what to do. The ruling team is falling apart and the wave of resignation is paralyzing all the party in power. Pashinyan can not bring to a logical conclusion of any reform or work that he promised, on the eve of coming to power. It shows his incompetence, unprofessionalism.
Pashinyan is not able to carry out deep reforms in any field, and not able to manage any field normally. Local and foreign analysts claim that today all state administration system is dragging into chaos. It is not persuasive that the steps taken by Pashinyan will lead to any quality changes. Generally, it is impossible to “accuse” him on carrying out considered, wise policy. In the third year of the street revolution, Pashinyan sees the situation, so he is afraid of any changes, unification of forces against him. Therefore he wants to appoint those to the high positions, who are completely loyal to him, so in case of any protests, power structures to support him completely.
On the other hand, Pashinyan with these changes demonstrates as if serves the people, removing incompetent staff and appointing good ones instead. However, his attempts do not work too. There can be such a situation in the country that all the forces can unite against him. Distrust in all sections of the community against unsuccessful revolutioner is already growing. Another important point is that at the same time, Pashinyan is accused of money laundering. In such a condition, rather than the collapse of the economy and deep crisis, Pashinyan is concerned about the possibility of the appearance of a new leader who can take away his cabinet and status. Pashinyan fears that processes can take such a direction.
In such a condition in Armenia, with such government, he understands that Garabagh talks have failed. The provocation on the border with Azerbaijan is calculated for the Pashinyan government to exaggerate the issue of a foreign enemy and remove the problems from the agenda which was created by his incompetent management. Pashinyan considers mobilizing the society in the face of external threats, disarm the opposition, and eliminate a serious threat formed against the government will be possible. However, dissatisfaction from the current power in Armenia reaches such a level that it seems impossible to unite Armenian society. Against the background of serious problems, the rating of Prime minister Nikol Pashinyan within Armenia is rapidly decreasing. On the one hand, the serious problems caused by pandemic, on the other hand, not reaching “gas agreement” with Russia, as well as lack of solidarity of citizens within the country and the response that Armenians get in the direction of Tovuz, pushes into the corner the Pashinyan government. Shortly, the failure of Pashinyan and his team is growing every day. Pashinyan tries to relate all the problems with coronavirus, however, the opposition says the main cause of the crisis is the incompetence of Pashinyan.
For this reason, Pashinyan uses "new war provocation". However, the tough and adequate response of the Azerbaijani Army aggravates his situation. One more fact should be paid attention. Armenians have faced serious losses in the last provocation. The mass media which is under control of Pashinyan tries to hide this fact. But the bodies of Armenian soldiers are delivered to the different regions of Armenia. The Pashinyan government already turns his people into a victim. And this makes his situation more critical. The next war provocation may lead to the end of Pashinyan. Pashinyan again saw what Azerbaijani army capable of. Armenia has no other way, but to raise the “white flag”.
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