EIA has revised its current forecast of domestic crude oil production down from the April STEO as a result of lower crude oil prices, APA-Economics reports citing forecasts of Energy Information Administration under the US Ministry of Energy.
EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 11.7 million b/d in 2020, down 0.5 million b/d from 2019.
In 2021, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline further by 0.8 million b/d. If realized, the 2020 production decline would mark the first annual decline since 2016. U.S. crude oil production has not declined for two years in a row since the 17-year period of declines beginning in 1992 and running through 2008. Typically, price changes affect production after about a six-month lag. However, current market conditions will likely reduce this lag as many producers have already announced plans to reduce capital spending and drilling levels.