The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) ended its meeting today without an immediate policy recommendation over how the group should proceed with its crude output cuts, OPEC+ sources said. Recommendations will be provided to Opec+ ministers at their upcoming meeting on 1 December, according to an OPEC statement, APA-Economics reports.
The JMMC considered a number of supply and demand scenarios for the coming year, including ones that envisage the group extending its current output cuts by three months and by six months.
The base case scenario — which involves OPEC+ sticking to its original plan to raise collective output by almost 2mn b/d in January — sees commercial oil stocks declining but remaining more than 125mn bl above the five-year average by the end of 2021.
An alternative scenario — in which the cuts are kept at current levels for the first three months of next year — sees stocks move down to 73mn bl above the five year-average by the end of next year. The scenario in which cuts are extended for six months leaves inventories 21mn bl above the five-year average by the end of 2021.
Ahead of the JMMC meeting, OPEC+ ministers struck a cautious tone, warning that the coalition faces a "long and bumpy road ahead" despite growing optimism over potential Covid-19 vaccines.