"We expect rising production will end the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and lead to relatively balanced global oil markets in the second half of 2021 (2H21)," APA-Economics reports citing a monthly report of the forecast of the US Energy Information Adminstration.
"Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $68 per barrel (b) in May, up $4/b from April. Brent prices were higher in May as global oil inventories continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in the first four months of the year. In the coming months, we expect that global oil production will increase to match rising levels of global oil consumption. The rising oil production in the forecast is largely a result of the OPEC+ decision to raise production. We expect rising production will end the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and lead to relatively balanced global oil markets in the second half of 2021 (2H21). We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels in 3Q21, averaging $68/b. However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production—along with other supply growth—will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices. Based on these factors, we expect Brent to average $60/b in 2022," noted in the report.
EIA has increased its outlook on the average price of Brent for 2021 from USD 62,26 to USD 65,19.
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