Goldman Sachs lowered its US economic growth target to 5.6% for 2021 and to 4% for 2022, citing an expected decline in fiscal support through the end of next year and a more delayed recovery in the economy. consumer spending than previously expected, APA reports citing Reuters.
The company previously expected 5.7% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and 4.4% growth in 2022, according to research released Sunday by authors including chief economist Jan Hatzius.
They pointed to “prolonged virus pressure on virus-prone consumer services” and to the expectation that semiconductor supplies are unlikely to improve until the first half of 2022, delaying replenishment of inventories until next year.
And on top of the near-term virus pressures, they also expect spending on some services and non-durables to remain persistently below pre-pandemic trends, especially “if a shift to remote working causes some workers in general spend less.”
On a quarterly basis, Goldman lowered both its Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 GDP estimates to 4.5% from 5% and raised its Q2 2022 estimate from 4.5% to 4%, while the estimate for the third quarter was lowered from 3.5% to 3% .
However, it raised its estimate for the fourth quarter of 2022 from 1.5% to 1.75%.
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