“Economic growth rates in oil exporting and importing countries increased. However, the economic growth rate is lower than the rate observed in 2000-2013”, IMF said.
The GDP in CCA rose 2.4% in 2016.
Increase of output in Kashagan oil field and steps towards stimulation of the state budget will lead to increase of economic growth rate in Kazakhstan.
Oil exporting countries’ GDP will increase 3.1% in 2017, 4.1% in 2018. Last year the economic growth rate in these countries made up 2.2%.
Oil importing countries’ economy will grow 3.6% in 2017, 3.9% in 2018 while it was 3.3% in 2016.
IMF says the budget deficit of oil exporting countries will make up 20.6% of GDP in 2017, 13.5% in 2018 (14.9% in 2016): “This is caused by complex support to banking system in Kazakhstan and State Oil Fund’s transfers to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan”
It is noted that hard budget constraints prevent economic growth rate and economic diversification.
IMF thinks that the inflation in oil exporting countries will make up 8.3% in 2017, 7.6% in 2018 while it was 11.5% in 2016: “Strengthening of Kazakh tenge and reduction of budget expenditures cause inflation pressure to decline. Moreover, the inflation slackens in Azerbaijan and this process will continue in the perspective. Azerbaijani government is planning budget consolidation and pursuing hard monetary policy”.