We forecast assets of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) will amount to about 60% of GDP at year-end 2018, the international rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) noted in the information on Azerbaijan’s sovereign credit rating, APA-Economics reported.
According to the information, the sovereign will remain in a net asset position averaging 32% of GDP over the four-year forecast horizon.
“We have now revised our estimates of SOFAZ's liquid assets, excluding from our calculations exposures that might be hard to liquidate in a downside scenario, such as the fund's domestic investments and foreign equity exposures. We estimate last year's general government deficit amounted to 1.5% of GDP. That said, this outcome includes a one-off transfer from SOFAZ to the CBA to boost the latter's foreign exchange reserves. Excluding the transfer, the general government budget posted a surplus. We forecast an average general government surplus of about 1% of GDP through 2021. Azerbaijan will also benefit from annual payments related to the amended ACG PSA,” said the information.
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