OPEC sees oil demand rebounding then plateauing after 2035

OPEC sees oil demand rebounding then plateauing after 2035
# 28 September 2021 17:17 (UTC +04:00)

Demand for oil will grow sharply in the next few years as the global economy recovers from the pandemic, OPEC said on Tuesday, adding that the world needs to keep investing in oil production to avert a crunch even as the energy transition is under way, APA reports citing Reuters.

The view from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries contrasts with others such as an International Energy Agency report, which in May said investors should not fund new oil projects if the world wants to reach net zero emissions.

Oil use will rise by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.6 million bpd, OPEC said its 2021 World Oil Outlook, adding to robust growth already predicted for 2021 and 2022 , and pushing demand back above the pre-pandemic 2019 rate.

"Energy and oil demand have picked up significantly in 2021 after the massive drop in 2020," OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo wrote in the foreword to the report. "Continued expansion is forecast for the longer term."

With oil demand recovering, OPEC and its allies such as Russia - a grouping known as OPEC+ - are unwinding record oil supply cuts made last year. But there are signs some OPEC+ producers are unable to pump more due in part to a lack of investment, and that has boosted prices.

OPEC also lowered its estimates for longer-term oil demand in the report, citing changes to consumer behaviour brought by the pandemic and competition from electric cars. Global demand is expected to plateau after 2035, it said.

Last year's report said world oil demand would exceed 2019's rate in 2022, not 2023. Now, world oil demand is expected to reach 106.6 million bpd in 2030, down 600,000 bpd from last year's figure.

Assuming a faster take-up of existing technology, the Accelerated Policy and Technology Scenario, demand could be falling by the 2030s, according to an OPEC chart showing a more pronounced demand drop-off than a similar chart last year.