According to the estimates of S&P, in 2023, real GDP growth in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will slow down after strong growth in 2022, but will continue to support the banking sector of these countries, APA-Economics reports.
The political risk in the region remains elevated, although it has been contained so far. Possible further sanctions against Russia, one of the main trading partners of the region, and a probable deeper recession in Russia may lead to a decrease in trade volumes and the flow of remittances to these five countries. In addition, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain unstable, and the possibility of further escalation remains.
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