The first anniversary of the Second Karabakh War is marked completely different in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
On the Day of Remembrance held in Azerbaijan national solidarity, confidence in the future, and optimism prevailed, as it was a year ago. However, the first anniversary of the war in Armenia was marked with depression, confusion, and hopelessness situation. One more day of mourning emerged in a weeping Armenian history. September 27 was marked as a day of mourning in Armenia.
The obligation to sign the act of defeat and capitulation destroyed the Armenian society. Average statistical Armenian did not expect such an ending of the situation. So, society cannot digest rolling down the abyss in the blink of an eye. Armenian political elite watch with a shock effect that Azerbaijani society established unity model again in September 27 events. How the Azerbaijani people, the Azerbaijani state, and the President of Azerbaijan respect the souls of the martyrs who died for the Motherland became clear once again at the commemorative events held in the country on September 27. The march held in the capital with the attendance of President Ilham Aliyev and the First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva with the portraits of martyrs was a scene of not only respect to the souls of martyrs, but also a scene of pride. However, completely different processes are observed in Armenia.
Rallies and pickets are held every day in front of the Armenian Ministry of Defence, the Presidential residence, the Cabinet of Ministers, parliament. Armenians call the government to account for their children missing, killing in the battle. The Armenian government ignores the problems of people who participated in the war, and people with disabilities. All of these have divided Armenian society into two different enemy camps. Bitter consequences of the battle have lost the trace of civil solidarity in Armenia. Thousands of citizens demand to resign, arrest of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and his team. Another side ruthlessly suppresses any form of protest.
The frustration of the 44-day war has put Armenian intellectuals in a deadlock. As an only way out from the situation, they offer to cry and grieve collectively, not alone. Reaching the number of suicides in Armenia at a fantastic level is a clear evidence of the desperation of the situation. Citizens are even separated from their daily work. The heavy defeat took them away from their daily worries. Armenians can not return back to life before 44-day war.
Reactions to the belief of Armenian historians “there were many such cases in the fate of our people, we were still undefeated we will take revenge” is aggressive. Armenians understand that one more revenge attempt could result in Armenia being wiped off the map as a state. The Armenian people understand that the next confrontation with the Azerbaijani Army, which has modern weapons, demonstrates national solidarity and did not run away during the 44-day war will be their end.
Instead of drawing conclusions from what happened, Armenians attribute blame to external factors, they say that Russia betrayed them and withdrew in front of Turkey. The Armenian press is trying to justify its military and political failures by claiming that Russia has lost its sphere of influence as a regional power, while Turkey, on the contrary, has a key say in the region. The Armenian government has begun to turn its back on Soros, whom it trusts so much.
There has always been an opinion in Armenia that Russia will fight against Azerbaijan instead of them. However, they forgot that in recent years, Yerevan had lost its previous ties with Moscow, relations between the two countries in the field of intelligence had been limited, and military cooperation had weakened. It is enough to look through a simple fact. During the leadership of Nikol Pashkinyan, three Armenian intelligence chiefs were replaced, none of the new chiefs had any skills, hated the Kremlin, and were not taken seriously by the West itself. Pashinyan's anti-Russian rhetoric, the arrest of former President Kocharyan, and the Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Yuri Khachaturov, completely damaged Yerevan's relations with Moscow.
At a time when anti-Russian tendencies were growing in the Armenian leadership and society, relations between Baku and Moscow were deepening day by day.
Once again, Azerbaijan pursued the right policy and correctly defined its strategic goals. As a result of this policy, the expectations of the Armenian society from Russia did not realize in the 44-day war. It is interesting that Armenia and the Armenian people have always thought that it is Russia's duty to defend them, to defend the country in their place, to wage war instead of them. They accepted it as Russia's commitment. Namely, that is why they consider their defeat in the 44-day war as a betrayal of Russia. It is impossible to encounter such absurd case in any part of the world.
Armenia also forgot that Azerbaijani Army had changed a lot over the past 30 years. Baku has a strong political and economic position. Armenia's strategic calculations also turned out to be wrong. Most importantly, the Armenians forgot that Azerbaijan would liberate Karabakh from occupation at any cost. The negotiations, statements and behavior of recent years gave grounds to say that Baku would never reconcile with the occupation.
Only 44 days were enough for the Armenians, who established their entire policy on populism and weeping, to understand the reality. If there are those who still do not want to understand this in Armenia, and those who speak here and there with revanchist fantasies, should think well.
It is not difficult to understand what awaits Yerevan in the future if the war that brought Armenia to its knees and depression did not yield results. The sooner the Armenian society realizes this, the better for them. Otherwise, their disappointments will last a long time.