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Russian political scientist: "Armenia's aim is to involve CSTO in the conflict with Azerbaijan, CSTO members understand this trick well"

13 July 2020 14:32 (UTC +04:00)

The events on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border show that this conflict is very hot. The conflict is unresolved and could explode at any moment, said Sergey Markov, Russian political scientist, director of the Institute of Political Studies, APA's Moscow correspondent reports.

A Russian political expert said there are a number of reasons for the clash: "One of the reasons is the internal political and economic crisis in Armenia. Pashinyan government failed to fulfill any of his promises. The economic and political situation in the country has become tense in the background of the coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, it is necessary to somehow divert the attention of the public. This is the first reason. The second reason is the current Armenian leadership's fear that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be resolved on the basis of the Kazan formula developed by Russia. The essence of this formula is clear to everyone. It is about in the initial stage the return of the regions around Nagorno Garabagh to Azerbaijan and in return the lifting of the blockade of Armenia and Nagorno Garabagh and the discussion of the final status of Garabagh. The Armenian leadership is afraid of signing this formula. Afraid of, because knows that it will face the pressure of radical forces in the country. Under these conditions, Armenia benefits from starting with small scale military operations. That is why Armenia benefits from it because international mediators to threaten Armenia by clapping their hands on the table, and Pashinyan to show his population that they have to make concessions as a result of international pressure.

S. Markov stressed that the main purpose of Armenia in committing provocation on the border with Azerbaijan was to involve the Collective Security Treaty Organization into the conflict. The Russian political expert also lent clarity in the position that could be taken up by the CSTO in case of continuation of the military operations: "The CSTO has always precisely expressed its position. The CSTO doesn’t consider Nagorno Garabagh as a part of Armenia’s territory. Therefore, in the case of commencement of military operations on the territory of Nagorno Garabagh, this organization will demonstrate a completely neutral stance. The CSTO will not interfere in the Nagorno Garabagh conflict. Therefore, I think, the military clash on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia will not last for long because Azerbaijan is not interested in this. This is Armenia’s initiative. The purpose of Armenia in starting military operations on the border with Azerbaijan is to involve the Collective Security Treaty Organization into this conflict. But the CSTO and the member states of this organization understand very well that the Armenian side acts cunningly. I think even if Azerbaijan responds with fire to the Armenians’ provocation on the border with Armenia, the CSTO will not interfere in this because the CSTO member states understand well Armenia’s trickery".